ACM Award Show Predictions

It's that time of year again.  Time for the "other" Country music trade group, the Academy of Country Music, to hand out their awards for the past year.  As is usual for this award show, the nominees are not necessarily the ones that ever get nominations from the CMA.  Also, the ACM allowed last year, for the first time, to let "Entertainer of the Year" be a fan voted award.  The Academy has chosen to continue to allow this trend and has also extended the voting to the new artist categories where the Academy also announced the winners of the Male, Female and Group categories are pre-telecast and one of those three winners will get a trophy on air as "Best New Artist," once again voted on by the fans.  What do the tea leaves say for these categories and more? Read on my friends, read on.

Entertainer of the Year

    * Kenny Chesney
    * Brad Paisley
    * George Strait
    * Carrie Underwood
    * Keith Urban

For the first time in a few years, Carrie Underwood has broken "The boys club" that typically is nominated for this award and since it's a fan voted award, she's a front-runner, with Keith Urban and Kenny Chesney, for this award.  While George Strait is a legend and has won this award many times before and Brad Paisley's certainly deserving of being included here, I have a hunch that Underwood’s young, computer savvy fans will give her the award.  

Top Male Vocalist

    * Kenny Chesney
    * Toby Keith
    * Brad Paisley
    * George Strait
    * Keith Urban

All 5 nominees scored #1 hits this past year but no artist has been as consistent on the charts as Brad Paisley has in the last year and while he's shut out of the Entertainer category, this one's all but assured of going to him.

Top Female Vocalist

    * Miranda Lambert
    * Heidi Newfield
    * Taylor Swift
    * Carrie Underwood
    * Lee Ann Womack

Heidi Newfield was the surprise entrant on this list, that is until you consider that she was one of only four solo female artists to score a Top 10 hit last year. Still, it'd be THE upset of the night if she took this award away from Carrie Underwood or Taylor Swift, the two who are fighting to win this award. In the end I think that Carrie will have just enough support to take this award home.

Top Vocal Group

    * Lady Antebellum
    * Little Big Town
    * Rascal Flatts
    * Randy Rogers Band
    * The Lost Trailers

While I like the Randy Rogers Band and think the Lost Trailers are Talented, this award only has three true contenders.  Lady A, Little Big Town and Rascal Flatts.  Given all the industry love that Lady A has gotten, along with winning the Best New Group award last year, I say that Lady A is nipping at Rascal Flatts' heels and might steal this award away from them.  Little Big Town are an awesome group, particularly live, but I think that their really the 3rd place group here.  With a new record coming out, Rascal Flatts are positioned well to retain their hold on this award and, in the end; I think that's exactly what will happen.

Top Vocal Duo

    * Big & Rich
    * Brooks & Dunn
    * Joey + Rory
    * Montgomery Gentry
    * Sugarland

As much as I love Joey + Rory, they really don't have a shot at winning this award.  Big & Rich really did little at all last year to even be included in this list of nominees (like the Wreckers the previous year) so that leaves, like the group category, three true contenders.  All three contenders have won this award in years past and I am thinking that there's a high likelihood that Sugarland retains the award, despite the radio success of Brooks & Dunn and Montgomery Gentry.  Sugarland had a very popular tour, a very successful (double platinum) album release and multiple #1 hits.  It really is their award to lose.

Top New Male Vocalist

    * Jamey Johnson
    * James Otto
    * Jake Owen ***WINNER

Top New Female Vocalist

    * Julianne Hough
    * Jake Owen
    * Zac Brown Band

With Jake Owen, Julianne Hough and Zac Brown Band winning their individual categories, they now are going head to head in the Top New Artist category where the fans get one more chance to vote for their favorite newcomer.  Since this is a fan award, that gives Julianne Hough a huge chance to take home this award.  I am holding out hope that Zac Brown Band's growing legion of fans somehow gives them the award for they truly are 2008's biggest new artist success story (since last year's show). 

Album of the Year

    * Troubadour – George Strait (MCA)
      Produced by: Tony Brown and George Strait

It's pretty easy to see, from this list of nominees, that The ACM mostly likes albums that have chart success.  While they changed the criteria of what an album needed to sell in order to qualify for the award, I still think that the most popular album on this list at retail is the likely winner.  So despite the rule change that allowed "That Lonesome Song" and "Back When I Knew It All" to be included here, I have a hard time seeing anything but Taylor Swift's "Fearless" getting the nod.  

Single Record of the Year [Award to Artist(s)/Producer(s)/Record Company]

    * You're Gonna Miss This
      Trace Adkins, Produced by Frank Rogers
      Capitol Nashville

If Jamey Johnson's gonna win awards at this show, it's going to be for "Single" or "Song" of the year.  I like all five of the songs listed here but somehow, I think that Heidi Newfield's "Johnny And June" is a front Runner with Jamey and Brad Paisley's songs.  In the end I think the Academy will give the award to Paisley. 

Song of the Year [Award to Composer(s)/Publisher(s)/Artist(s)]

    * You're Gonna Miss This
      Trace Adkins
      Composers:  Ashley Gorley and Lee Thomas Miller
      Publishers:  Music of Windswept (ASCAP),  Noah's Little Boat Music (BMI), Song of Combustion (ASCAP), Songs of Sea Gayle (BMI)

"In Color" was universally praised as one of the year's best songs and since this is a songwriter's award and Johnson's a previous winner in this category, I think this is where he will get the win.

Video of the Year [Award to Producer(s)/Director(s)/Artist(s)]

    * Start A Band - Brad Paisley Duet With Keith Urban *Winner*
      Produced by: Frank Rogers
      Arista Nashville

The last two categories on this list were already announced.  The Video of the Year" went to Brad Paisley for "Waitin' On A Woman" while the Vocal Event went to "Start A Band" by Paisley and Keith Urban.  With the award show serving as mainly a three hour infomercial for Country Music, here's hoping that Reba is able to give us a few laughs, that Taylor Swift and Rascal Flatts are on key and that the new Reba single is as good as it is being hyped to be.  If you don't agree with my predictions, feel free to leave a comment below. Enjoy the show.