It’s that time again, time for our predictions for the 46th Annual Academy of Country Music Awards show.  The show features fan-supported Entertainer of the Year and Best New Artist category voting.  Now, without further bluster, it’s time for our predictions.  After reading our predictions, we’ll link to a page for fan predictions where we wanna see what you have to say in a group of polls. 

In the Entertainer of the Year category, we find six nominees and one of them is NOT Carrie Underwood. Instead her fan’s most heated rival, Taylor Swift gets the slot.  The other female in the category this year is 2010’s Award queen Miranda Lambert. Joining them is Toby Keith, Brad Paisley, Keith Urban and the latest superstar in country music, Jason Aldean.  This category is fan voted so it may be hard to tell exactly who will win but given the loyal fans online, this one seems to be between Paisley and Swift with Jason Aldean standing an outside chance due to his growing popularity.

Will Win: Taylor Swift

Should Win: Brad Paisley

In the Top Male Vocalist category we find Paisley, Urban and first time nominee Aldean along with George Strait and show co-host Blake Shelton.  Shelton, who won the CMA Award’s Top Male Vocalist award is a front-runner here with Paisley and, possibly, Jason Aldean.  Shelton’s profile has never been any higher and with this hosting gig and a gig as a ‘mentor/judge’ on NBC’s The Voice, he really seems like the one to beat.  If anyone outside of Shelton or Paisley has a shot for this award this year, it’s certainly going to be Jason Aldean.  However, given how Aldean’s on the independent label Broken Bow Records, his chance of winning here isn’t as likely, unless the typically more ‘independent-minded’ ACM voting academy awards Aldean for his rise to Country Superstar. 

Will Win: Blake Shelton

Should Win: Jason Aldean

The Top Female Vocalist category features four female solo artists to score Top 10 hits in Reba, Miranda, Taylor and Carrie along with token category filler Lee Ann Womack.  Given how Sara Evans and Sunny Sweeney have joined the four women with Top 10’s in 2010 in doing the same thing this year (Carrie has yet to do it but she will), 2011/2012 Award shows will certainly have more who are ‘worthy’ to choose from.  Of these nominees, it’s hard to see anyone but Miranda Lambert taking this award.  Miranda’s already an ACM favorite with two Album of the Year trophies and is one of the most-nominated this year with the big hit “The House That Built Me.”  So, unless Reba somehow snags this from ‘Ran, we’re going with the future Mrs. Blake Shelton to take home this award

Will Win: Miranda Lambert

Should Win: Miranda Lambert

The biggest surprise here is that the current holders of the #1 single in America, Thompson Square, are not in this category while last year’s largely absent duo Montgomery Gentry (who are now on a small label in Average Joe’s Entertainment) are there.  We can only say that they should be here, particularly when the JaneDear girls are in this category.  Still, they likely wouldn’t have won anyway so we’re just splitting hairs.  Sugarland, Steel Magnolia and Joey+Rory join the two previously mentioned duos and honestly it’s hard to see this category going to anybody BUT Sugarland and if it does go to a different duo, it’ll be Steel Magnolia. 

Will Win: Sugarland

Should Win: Sugarland

Each of these groups in the Top Vocal Group category are very worthy of being here for various reasons but the biggest oddity is that Rascal Flatts – who won this category for most of the last decade – are nowhere to be found. Somehow, Randy Rogers Band made it in but they have no real shot of winning.  The Band Perry may win this award this time next year but in reality, this is a two horse race between 2010’s best-selling country group, Lady Antebellum and the most critically favored of this category, Zac Brown Band.  In the end, we think Lady A takes home the award here, on the strength of that album

Will Win: Lady Antebellum

Should Win: Zac Brown Band

Fans pared down the Best New Solo Artist and Best New Group or Duo category to go between Eric Church and The Band Perry. Each has already won their category and they’re competing for the love of fans and industry voters here for the Best New Artist trophy, which was given to Luke Bryan last year. It’s really a ‘pick-em’ award category here but given their fantastic “If I Die Young” and more youthful, engaged voters, I think this is The Band Perry’s award to lose.

Will Win: The Band Perry

Should Win: The Band Perry

The Album of the Year category features six of the strongest-selling and most critically-praised albums released in 2010.  There really isn’t an odd duck in this category when it comes to mainstream country music and it may just be the strongest category of these award shows.  I can easily see any of them winning but given how successful Lady Antebellum and Swift’s albums have been in the commercial sector – along with bringing in more fans to the genre  to dig the great albums from ZBB, Jamey and Dierks – I think it’s a two-horse race between them with Chesney being the least-likely to win. Still, If I were voting, I’d pick “Up On The Ridge” as Album of the Year.

Will Win: “Need You Now”

Should Win: “Up On The Ridge”

Single Record Of The Year (Goes to artist/producers) is an odd category as it features five #1 hits and one song which wasn’t ever a #1 single on the charts, outside of being 2010’s most played single (“Love Like Crazy”).  It’d be an amazing thing if that song won the award here because, honestly, it deserves it.  It’s a good song and it was the most played.  Still, these kinds of things never follow that kind of trend so I’m going to say this award will go to Miranda Lambert’s “The House That Built Me” or “If I Die Young” from The Band Perry.

Will Win: “The House That Built Me”

Should Win: “Love Like Crazy”

Song of the Year is a songwriter’s award and here I think that “Love Like Crazy” doesn’t stand a chance as praise is universal for “The House That Built Me.”  Honestly, no other song here stands a chance outside of “House,” except – again – “If I Die Young” but honestly, this isn’t even a close race.

Will Win: “The House That Built Me”

Should Win: “The House That Built Me”

The video of the Year award category features some pretty dang good videos with the cinematic “The boys of Fall,” being joined by fun videos from Shelton and Adkins and Sugarland.  Lambert’s two videos likely cancel each-other out leaving these three videos to fight.  Somehow, I think Blake Shelton and Trace Adkins take this award when really, it should go to Chesney and video director Shaun Silva.

Will Win: “Hillbilly Bone”

Should Win: “The Boys of Fall”

With “Hillbilly Bone” in this category last year, it cannot be here again this year so that leaves some great songs and interesting nominees.  Colt Ford scored his first major nomination for “Cold Beer” with Jamey Johnson but I don’t think they or Uncle Kracker and Kid Rock really stand a chance here.  Neither, does Coal Miner’s Daughter or “Blue Sky,” no matter how much I’d personally LOVE to see Nashville’s best female vocalist, Emily West, take an ACM Award home.  For what it’s worth I think that Randy Houser is the best male vocalist in the industry.  That leaves the Zac Brown Band and Alan Jackson ‘duet’ “As She’s Walking Away” as the obvious choice for this award, given who performs on the song and the fact that the song was a #1 hit is a big bonus too. 

Will Win: “As She’s Walking Away”

Should Win: “Blue Sky”

Well, friends, there you have it. These are the official Roughstock predictions for the 46th ACM Awards. Now it’s time for your choices, below. What say Roughstock readers. Vote in the polls and then leave a comment with your choices as well!  Enjoy the show this Sunday at 8PM East/West and 7pm Central/Mountain on CBS. 

Polls:

Also, We'll be live-blogging the event this year and hope you can join us!

ACM Awards Live Blogging